Ashcroft Polls Predict Telford Result

Ashcroft Polls Predict Telford Result

Lord Ashcroft runs constituency polls and in the marginal Telford seat, the latest figures put Lucy Allans chances of getting re-elected as an 80% likelyhood.

With just 730 votes separating Conservative & Labour candidates in 2015 every vote will count.

The Green Party won over 900 votes in 2015.

UKIP polled over 7000 votes at the last election in 2015 and are not fielding a candidate this time. Where will their votes go?

18 thoughts on “Ashcroft Polls Predict Telford Result

  • June 6, 2017 at 8:59 pm
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    After everything she has done!!! What is wrong with the people of Telford?!

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  • June 6, 2017 at 9:09 pm
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    Not in million years will she be ‘re elected this is Telford not the Wrekin I’d put money on her not getting back in

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  • June 6, 2017 at 9:09 pm
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    Who’s been polled who’s he’s been asking anyone on here been asked who there voting by this???

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  • June 6, 2017 at 9:13 pm
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    Let’s wait until Friday, the small band of haters who are on social media believe that they speak for the majority, the result will tell us if they do. I’m saying lucy allan but only by a 1000.

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    • June 7, 2017 at 3:37 am
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      Hate breeds hate.

      Lucy Allan has only herself to blame.

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  • June 6, 2017 at 9:15 pm
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    It’ll be really interesting to see what happens – Telford was one of the seats Ashcroft got wrong in 2015. It’s a really hard constituency to make any predictions about because of the changing demographics as all the new houses get built – one to watch on Thursday night!

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    • June 7, 2017 at 3:35 am
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      He didn’t actually get it right in 2015. if you read what he says he was actually way off.

      His published figures estimated 41 less seats for the Tories than they actually got. If they had only won 290 seats as he predicted they would not have had a majority!.

      Iain Dale then goes onto claim that he didn’t publish his initial figures. Sorry but the only valid figures are those that you publish, we can all try and reinvent history!

      He doesn’t seem to mention the Telford constituency in that article either so I take it that you are assuming he says Lucy Allan will win?,

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    • June 7, 2017 at 3:46 am
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      Thats my belief too. I have been shocked at some of the Tories who have said they aren’t voting for Lucy and any support from the Local conservative group (following the deselection farce) has been noticeably lacking. I think they have tweeted twice about the election since April!?

      Having said that Labour voters are notorious for not turning up in bad weather while Tory voters almost always seem to and if you read the Ashcroft figures correctly theres only a couple of hundred of votes in it..

      It’s on a knife’s edge!

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  • June 7, 2017 at 3:17 am
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    If you read the Ashcroft figures correctly Kuldip is actually ahead but only just, it really is neck & neck – explained in detail below for those of you that want the details..

    There has been a consistent problem with the Ashcroft poll which is that the sample group they have been using is heavily skewed by Tory voters. ie Lucy Allan did not have 54% of the vote in 2015 (she only had 38.7%. So when making realistic calculations you do have to adjust for this distortion.

    This means that at first glance on the Ashcroft site Lucy Allan appears to be doing very well. But ignore that heavily distorted chance figure and instead look at the bar charts (the 1st and 3rd chart are the only really relevant statistics on the whole page in relation to who is actually projected to win). To calculate the current state of play you have to look at the percentage change between 2015 and 2017.

    In Lucy Allan’s case the vote is down 3.7%
    i.e. ((54-52)/54=0.037037r)*100=3.7037r so down 3.7%

    In Kuldip Sahota’s case the vote is up 2.4%
    i.e. ((42-41)/41=0.02439r)*100=2.439r so up 2.4%

    Based on 2015’s turnout (41,313) and using the Ashcroft model to calculate the percentage changes of the actual 2015 votes (shown in brackets) would be as follows..

    Lucy Allan (16094) down 3.7% = 15499

    Kuldip Sahota (15364) up 2.4% =15733

    This would see Kuldip Sahota winning but only by 234 votes.

    As 234 votes is well within the margin of error when using any polling method it is probably safer just to say that it really is still neck and neck!

    Reply

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