NHS plans for ‘super surge’ this winter

Health organisations in Shropshire are planning to be able to cope with a ‘super surge’ triple whammy of respiratory illness, workforce gaps and infection outbreaks this winter.

The winter plans of The Shrewsbury and Telford Hospitals NHS Trust (SaTH) are set to be ‘stress tested’ alongside others at a regional war game-style exercise next Wednesday (September 17), a meeting of the board will be told this week.

A ‘super surge’ is one of the scenarios being tested for and includes combined pressure from respiratory illness, workforce gaps and infection outbreaks.

The trust estimates that it will need to use 63 more beds under this worst case scenario. Board papers reveal plans for 90 extra beds are being prepared.

But the board papers still say there are risks that demand exceeds expectations or infection surges are higher than predicted. 

SaTH has considered the impact of its 2024/25 winter plan and found it had a “limited positive impact” on the performance of urgent and emergency care despite a number of actions.

December 2024 was the worst month of ambulance handover delays on record for the West Midlands region, exceeding delays experienced over winter 22/23, the board papers say.

But the trust records that it “coped considerably better than previously and compared to the rest of the region”.

SaTH’s performance assurance committee (PAC) met in July and heard about measures to “improve the resilience of Shropshire, Telford and Wrekin during the winter months”.

It noted that many improvements will come before the winter, including more beds at both Princess Royal Hospital in Telford and the Royal Shrewsbury Hospital.

However the minutes to the PAC meeting note that the county’s health and social care system carry a “very high risk” in urgent and emergency care, being in the bottom decile of performance nationally.

The report adds that the county “will be particularly vulnerable to winter pressures”.

Andrew Morgan, the chair in common at SaTH and Shropcom, has acknowledged improvement work taking place but has stressed the importance of further scrutiny and discussion.

He has emphasised the importance of meeting performance and financial commitments that the trust has made to NHS England.

Jo Williams, the chief executive in common, is set to tell the board that winter planning is “progressing well, with strong collaboration across system partners to deliver on shared goals”.

“The final submission to NHSE is scheduled for September 2025.”

Central to the plan is a focus on urging staff to get vaccinated against flu to “protect themselves, colleagues, patients, and families”.

The trust is aiming to improve staff vaccination rates by five per cent to 60 per cent in total and encouraging ‘champions’ to make the case among colleagues for taking jabs.

That campaign is set to start in October and uptake will be monitored by a ‘flu committee’ every week.

Testing for respiratory viruses will be made available to both emergency departments from October 2025.

And there will also be deep cleans of high-risk areas to reduce the risk of infection.

The board will have to send off an assurance statement to a national urgent and emergency care team by the end of September.